Clinton Tracker

Belittled Woman

FROM THE WASHINGTON POST'S LIBBY COPELAND: At some point along the way, Hillary Clinton became "poor Hillary" and it stuck. She went up against a charmer who once made an audience cheer just by blowing his nose (poor Hillary), and she lost states and delegates and she bet on a filly that died (poor Hillary), and nobody cares that she won West Virginia because it's over, except she can't see it because she's... "Poor Hillary," write the op-ed writers and the bloggers and the newspaper letter-writers. "Poor Hillary's done," writes a gleeful reader in Portsmouth, Va., on Mother's Day. "The Billstone Around Poor Hillary's Neck," reads a New York Daily News headline yesterday. The talk show host Bill Maher has used the phrase, and the occasional CNN anchor, and, of course, the conservative yakkers who like the pure, distilled schadenfreude of those two words.

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What's It All About, Hillary?

By the time Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama in West Virginia, she was in a pickle: How do you win and prepare to lose at the same time? After all, nuance is an unnatural act in politics. It's far easier to say you're ready to be commander in chief and he's not. Or that you attract white, blue-collar voters and he doesn't. Even "Shame on you, Barack Obama" has a certain easy ring to it on the campaign trail.

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Clinton’s Universal Bargaining Chip

By Katharine Q. Seelye
NYtimes.com
We speculated last week about the possible bargaining that might be going on before Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton might cede the nomination contest and turn her energy to campaigning for Senator Barack Obama.

Some readers thought the whole idea preposterous and questioned what leverage Mrs. Clinton might have over Mr. Obama to make him consider any of her so-called demands.

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Why poll numbers skewed: Race effect?

FROM POLITICO.COM: As the nation’s pollsters convene this weekend in New Orleans at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, one topic will be the subject of lively debate — the so-called “Bradley effect.”

The Bradley effect, which refers to the propensity of white poll respondents to overstate their support for a black candidate, isn’t the only issue that pollsters, statisticians and academics will discuss and dispute. But it may be one of the most consequential since it stands to significantly skew pre-election poll results in an election where it seems increasingly likely that Barack Obama will emerge as the Democratic party’s presidential nominee.

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New Clinton Ads for Oregon, Kentucky

By Ariel Alexovich
NYtimes.com

Not only is Hillary Rodham Clinton continuing her push for the White House, but she’s still actively competing on the airwaves.

The Clinton campaign began showing new TV ads in the two states that vote next Tuesday — Oregon and Kentucky.

According to recent polls, Barack Obama has the early lead in Oregon. Mrs. Clinton’s decision to drop her campaign cash on TV time there could be a sign that her campaign thinks she’s competitive there.

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Clinton's 11th-Hour Push

FROM THE HILL: Obama's campaign has circulated talking points rebutting Clinton's arguments.

"Barack Obama has won key swing states that Democrats need to win in November like Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota and Virginia -- many by very wide margins," stated an Obama campaign memorandum obtained by The Hill. "In fact, he won neighboring Virginia by 29 points."

Obama allies have also argued that he is more popular than Clinton among independent voters.

"Nationally, Obama is running stronger among independent voters than any winning presidential candidate since 1988 -- and he's doing better than Sen. Clinton among these voters as well in general election polling," stated the memo.

Clinton has performed better in a swath of House districts that voted for President Bush. She is pressing that record with superdelegates from conservative districts, especially freshman Democrats facing tough races.

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Big Pro-Hillary Independent Group Will Spend Up To $500,000 on Ad in Oregon

FROM TALKING POINTS MEMO: The American Leadership Project -- the big pro-Hillary 527 put together by major Hillary-backing unions and major donors -- is buying $300,000-$500,000 worth of TV time in Oregon for a new ad touting Hillary's record on the economy, I'm told.

Tellingly, the spot -- unlike past ALP-sponsored ads, which attacked Obama -- will be uniformly positive, with no mention at all of Obama or even any implicit contrast between his and Hillary's economic record. The ad will begin running today.

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Racism Emerges in Democratic Primaries

FROM BONNIE ERBE ON SEATTLEPI.COM: A telling point about white, working class voters and how some of them will vote when (and it looks like when, not if) Sen. Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee was made in an article in this week's Washington Post. The monster lurking behind the curtain in the Democratic presidential race is racism. ... It's ugly but it's real. It's been largely ignored by the media as well as Obama supporters up to now. But the fact is there are a lot more American voters who identify with low-income factory workers than there are voters who identify with Harvard Law School graduates. My sad prediction is, assuming Obama secures the Democratic nomination, a racial chasm will open in this country that will rival the Daisetta, Texas, sink hole in depth and the Grand Canyon in width.

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Clinton's Biggest Mistake

FROM TOM BEVAN ON REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM: Coming off her landslide win in West Virginia on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton plods on to the end of the primary season on June 3. But her campaign has already been declared dead by many pundits, and the post mortems on why her campaign failed have already begun. ... Clinton's first and biggest mistake, which eventually led to her undoing, can be summed up in a single question: how and why did her campaign miss Obama's association with Reverend Wright? put simply, had Reverend Wright been introduced to voters a few days before the Iowa caucuses, odds are Barack Obama would not be a hair's breadth away from clinching the Democratic nomination for President of the United States.

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If Clinton Wants VP, Obama Can't Stop Her

FROM BOB BECKEL ON REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM: Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

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